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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."